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Improving the understanding of the predictability of extreme weather events through data assimilation and ensemble approaches
Year |
Title of Project |
Funding Agency |
Project cost |
2023 – 2025
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Implementation of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity Approach to Estimate the Impact of Observations in IMD GFS forecast
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Monsoon Mission (Ministry of Earth Science) |
58.0 Lakhs |
2022 – 2024 | Improving the Prediction of Thunderstorms using Dual – Resolution Hybrid Ensemble – Variational Data Assimilation System in WRF model
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Ministry of Earth Science (MoES) |
75.0 Lakhs |
2018 – 2019
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Implementing 4DVAR Data Assimilation in SASE forecasts |
SASE, DRDO |
10.0 Lakhs |
2014 – 2017
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Use of Hybrid Ensemble Data Assimilation system in NARL operational forecasts
|
ASRG |
8.0 Lakhs |
Student Name | Title of Thesis & Year of completion | Current Position |
Dr. Rekha Bharali Gogoi
| Impact of Ensemble Derived Flow-dependent Background Error Covariance in a Data Assimilation System for Regional-scale NWP model
Year: 2021 |
Scientist – F NESAC, DoS, Umiam |
Dr. Arpita Munsi
(Co-guided with Dr. Amit P Kesarkar, NARL)
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Understanding the helical evolution of tropical cyclones and their interaction with the upper ocean
Year: 2022 |
Research Associate, NARL |
Dr. Babitha George
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Predictability and Dynamics of Extreme Weather Events over the Indian Subcontinent using Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis in EnKF Data Assimilation System
Year: 2023 | Earth Sciences department, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands |
On the Cumulative Effect of Precipitation Assimilation and Microphysics Scheme Complexity on Afternoon Convective Events
The study examines the impact of precipitation assimilation using the 4DVAR approach on the forecasting of convective afternoon rainfall events, with a focus on the complexity of microphysics schemes. A new criterion has been developed to address the “zero rain” issue associated with precipitation assimilation. The analysis reveals that when precipitation is assimilated, microphysics schemes incorporating graupel enhance hydrometeor activity in the upper levels, which, in turn, suppresses rainfall intensity and spatial distribution, thereby degrading the forecast accuracy for convective rain. These findings underscore the significance of employing appropriate microphysics schemes for effective precipitation assimilation.